Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Eleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
3 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
5%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Vitória de Renan Santos
<1%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Outro
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 44%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 5.8%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 Vol.
$387,252 Vol.
3 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$16,870 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$34,880 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
$27,668 Vol.
38%
Lula da Silva <5%
$34,352 Vol.
44%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$12,161 Vol.
3%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$10,242 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$17,207 Vol.
6%
Vitória de Renan Santos
$212,451 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
$7,371 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
$6,710 Vol.
<1%
Outro
$7,340 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$387,252Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$387,252Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from Datafolha and other firms shows President Lula da Silva leading Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round voting intentions, with both candidates facing rejection rates near 45-47 percent and an undecided or blank share of 9-12 percent. The gap has narrowed from earlier surveys, reflecting the start of free electoral broadcasts, the first presidential debate, and the rise of third-place candidate Augusto Cury. Weak second-quarter economic data and legal rulings around campaign materials have also contributed to voter volatility. These factors sustain trader consensus around a sub-10 percent margin for Lula, as comparable historical first-round contests and current polling averages point to limited separation before the October 4 vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
Flávio Bolsonaro ficará em segundo lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
89%
Sim
Lula vencerá com mais votos no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
90%
Sim
Augusto Cury ficará em terceiro lugar no primeiro turno da eleição presidencial brasileira de 2026?
52%
Sim
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions