**Jaques Wagner holds the highest market-implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because repeated surveys show him consistently ranking second overall behind PT colleague Rui Costa, especially in second-preference or consolidated vote scenarios.** Recent Real Time Big Data polling (early September) places Costa at 26 percent, Wagner at 19 percent, João Roma at 17 percent, and Angelo Coronel at 15 percent, with the three non-leading contenders statistically tied within margins of error. Wagner benefits from high statewide name recognition, the PT’s organizational strength in Bahia, and voter willingness to split tickets between the two PT names. Roma and Coronel have narrowed the gap through opposition consolidation and recent survey gains, while elevated undecided and blank/null shares (often 20+ percent) leave room for late shifts. The market pricing reflects traders’ assessment that Wagner’s structural advantages make him the most likely runner-up absent a sharp late movement toward one of the opposition contenders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJaques Wagner 58%
João Roma 19.7%
Angelo Coronel 14.9%
Rui Costa 13.5%
$36,047 Vol.
$36,047 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jaques Wagner
58%
João Roma
16%
Angelo Coronel
15%
Rui Costa
14%
Carlos Sodré
<1%
Gregorio Gould
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
<1%
Marcelo Millet
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
<1%
Professora Delliana
<1%
Jaques Wagner 58%
João Roma 19.7%
Angelo Coronel 14.9%
Rui Costa 13.5%
$36,047 Vol.
$36,047 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jaques Wagner
$24,277 Vol.
58%
João Roma
$1,346 Vol.
16%
Angelo Coronel
$1,727 Vol.
15%
Rui Costa
$4,880 Vol.
14%
Carlos Sodré
$681 Vol.
<1%
Gregorio Gould
$570 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Carvalho
$488 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Millet
$673 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Santtana
$654 Vol.
<1%
Professora Delliana
$751 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner holds the highest market-implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because repeated surveys show him consistently ranking second overall behind PT colleague Rui Costa, especially in second-preference or consolidated vote scenarios.** Recent Real Time Big Data polling (early September) places Costa at 26 percent, Wagner at 19 percent, João Roma at 17 percent, and Angelo Coronel at 15 percent, with the three non-leading contenders statistically tied within margins of error. Wagner benefits from high statewide name recognition, the PT’s organizational strength in Bahia, and voter willingness to split tickets between the two PT names. Roma and Coronel have narrowed the gap through opposition consolidation and recent survey gains, while elevated undecided and blank/null shares (often 20+ percent) leave room for late shifts. The market pricing reflects traders’ assessment that Wagner’s structural advantages make him the most likely runner-up absent a sharp late movement toward one of the opposition contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ET
Volume
$36,047Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Jaques Wagner holds the highest market-implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because repeated surveys show him consistently ranking second overall behind PT colleague Rui Costa, especially in second-preference or consolidated vote scenarios.** Recent Real Time Big Data polling (early September) places Costa at 26 percent, Wagner at 19 percent, João Roma at 17 percent, and Angelo Coronel at 15 percent, with the three non-leading contenders statistically tied within margins of error. Wagner benefits from high statewide name recognition, the PT’s organizational strength in Bahia, and voter willingness to split tickets between the two PT names. Roma and Coronel have narrowed the gap through opposition consolidation and recent survey gains, while elevated undecided and blank/null shares (often 20+ percent) leave room for late shifts. The market pricing reflects traders’ assessment that Wagner’s structural advantages make him the most likely runner-up absent a sharp late movement toward one of the opposition contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$36,047Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Jaques Wagner holds the highest market-implied probability for second place in Bahia’s October 4 Senate election because repeated surveys show him consistently ranking second overall behind PT colleague Rui Costa, especially in second-preference or consolidated vote scenarios.** Recent Real Time Big Data polling (early September) places Costa at 26 percent, Wagner at 19 percent, João Roma at 17 percent, and Angelo Coronel at 15 percent, with the three non-leading contenders statistically tied within margins of error. Wagner benefits from high statewide name recognition, the PT’s organizational strength in Bahia, and voter willingness to split tickets between the two PT names. Roma and Coronel have narrowed the gap through opposition consolidation and recent survey gains, while elevated undecided and blank/null shares (often 20+ percent) leave room for late shifts. The market pricing reflects traders’ assessment that Wagner’s structural advantages make him the most likely runner-up absent a sharp late movement toward one of the opposition contenders.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions