Cid Gomes holds the highest implied probability for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by his incumbency, consistent polling leads of 23–26 percent in recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, and alignment with the state’s governing PT-PSB bloc. Capitão Wagner trails as the leading opposition challenger, backed by União Brasil and Bolsonaro-aligned voters, while Luizianne Lins and a fragmented field of eight registered candidates split remaining support. Tight margins between the top two reflect Ceará’s polarized electorate and the dual-seat structure, with recent poll fluctuations and closed candidate registrations keeping separation modest. Late-campaign events such as debates, regional turnout patterns, or alliance shifts could widen the gap ahead of election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Alcides Fernandes 5%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Cid Gomes
55%
Capitão Wagner
26%
Luizianne
12%
Alcides Fernandes
5%
Catarina Matos
4%
Lino Alves
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
4%
Reginaldo
4%
Cid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Alcides Fernandes 5%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Cid Gomes
$306 Vol.
55%
Capitão Wagner
$174 Vol.
26%
Luizianne
$41 Vol.
12%
Alcides Fernandes
$40 Vol.
5%
Catarina Matos
$109 Vol.
4%
Lino Alves
$86 Vol.
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
$86 Vol.
4%
Reginaldo
$88 Vol.
4%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes holds the highest implied probability for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by his incumbency, consistent polling leads of 23–26 percent in recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, and alignment with the state’s governing PT-PSB bloc. Capitão Wagner trails as the leading opposition challenger, backed by União Brasil and Bolsonaro-aligned voters, while Luizianne Lins and a fragmented field of eight registered candidates split remaining support. Tight margins between the top two reflect Ceará’s polarized electorate and the dual-seat structure, with recent poll fluctuations and closed candidate registrations keeping separation modest. Late-campaign events such as debates, regional turnout patterns, or alliance shifts could widen the gap ahead of election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$931Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes holds the highest implied probability for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by his incumbency, consistent polling leads of 23–26 percent in recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, and alignment with the state’s governing PT-PSB bloc. Capitão Wagner trails as the leading opposition challenger, backed by União Brasil and Bolsonaro-aligned voters, while Luizianne Lins and a fragmented field of eight registered candidates split remaining support. Tight margins between the top two reflect Ceará’s polarized electorate and the dual-seat structure, with recent poll fluctuations and closed candidate registrations keeping separation modest. Late-campaign events such as debates, regional turnout patterns, or alliance shifts could widen the gap ahead of election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$931Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cid Gomes holds the highest implied probability for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate race, driven by his incumbency, consistent polling leads of 23–26 percent in recent Quaest and Datafolha surveys, and alignment with the state’s governing PT-PSB bloc. Capitão Wagner trails as the leading opposition challenger, backed by União Brasil and Bolsonaro-aligned voters, while Luizianne Lins and a fragmented field of eight registered candidates split remaining support. Tight margins between the top two reflect Ceará’s polarized electorate and the dual-seat structure, with recent poll fluctuations and closed candidate registrations keeping separation modest. Late-campaign events such as debates, regional turnout patterns, or alliance shifts could widen the gap ahead of election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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