Deltan Dallagnol’s late-July launch as the Novo candidate and Álvaro Dias’s early-August withdrawal have concentrated attention on a crowded right-leaning field, with recent polls showing Dallagnol statistically tied or narrowly ahead of Alexandre Curi. Multiple viable contenders, including Filipe Barros and Cristina Graeml, continue to split conservative support, while left-leaning names such as Gleisi Hoffmann remain in single digits. Dallagnol’s pending eligibility review before the Electoral Justice adds uncertainty that keeps implied probabilities for first place tightly clustered around 50 percent across most listed candidates. Traders appear to price the race as highly sensitive to final candidate lists, party alliances, and any court ruling before the October 2026 vote.