Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the two consistently positioned to advance to an October 25 runoff. Quaest surveys from mid-August show Lula at 38-43 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-40 percent in first-round and simulated-runoff scenarios, within margins of error and narrower than earlier margins. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, trail far behind in single digits. Campaigns formally opened August 16 amid established left-right polarization, with Jair Bolsonaro remaining ineligible. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these polling patterns and the structural barriers facing third-place contenders in Brazil’s two-round system.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$481,721 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
Renan Santos
6%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$481,721 Wol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$218,815 Wol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$48,887 Wol.
93%
Renan Santos
$15,378 Wol.
6%
Romeu Zema
$610 Wol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Wol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Wol.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$81,768 Wol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Wol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,495 Wol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the two consistently positioned to advance to an October 25 runoff. Quaest surveys from mid-August show Lula at 38-43 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-40 percent in first-round and simulated-runoff scenarios, within margins of error and narrower than earlier margins. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, trail far behind in single digits. Campaigns formally opened August 16 amid established left-right polarization, with Jair Bolsonaro remaining ineligible. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these polling patterns and the structural barriers facing third-place contenders in Brazil’s two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$481,721Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the two consistently positioned to advance to an October 25 runoff. Quaest surveys from mid-August show Lula at 38-43 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-40 percent in first-round and simulated-runoff scenarios, within margins of error and narrower than earlier margins. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, trail far behind in single digits. Campaigns formally opened August 16 amid established left-right polarization, with Jair Bolsonaro remaining ineligible. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these polling patterns and the structural barriers facing third-place contenders in Brazil’s two-round system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$481,721Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads recent polls for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with the two consistently positioned to advance to an October 25 runoff. Quaest surveys from mid-August show Lula at 38-43 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 31-40 percent in first-round and simulated-runoff scenarios, within margins of error and narrower than earlier margins. Other candidates, including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, trail far behind in single digits. Campaigns formally opened August 16 amid established left-right polarization, with Jair Bolsonaro remaining ineligible. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects these polling patterns and the structural barriers facing third-place contenders in Brazil’s two-round system.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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