Lula's commanding 96% implied probability to finish first in Sergipe's October 4 first round reflects the Northeast's entrenched support for the Workers' Party incumbent, rooted in long-standing voter preferences tied to federal social programs and regional economic priorities. National polls from Nexus, Quaest, and PoderData through mid-August show Lula holding 39-42% overall, with substantially wider margins expected in his Northeastern base compared to tighter national figures against Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Sergipe and neighboring states reinforce this positioning ahead of the campaign's formal start. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among key demographics, targeted opposition messaging, or unforeseen national economic signals could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this state.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLula 96%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%
Edmilson Costa 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury 1.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
2%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Zema
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Lula 96%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%
Edmilson Costa 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury 1.1%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$1,230 Wol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$190 Wol.
2%
Edmilson Costa
$136 Wol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$136 Wol.
1%
Renan Santos
$136 Wol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$136 Wol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$136 Wol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$136 Wol.
1%
Zema
$136 Wol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$136 Wol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$136 Wol.
1%
Samara
$190 Wol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$130 Wol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 96% implied probability to finish first in Sergipe's October 4 first round reflects the Northeast's entrenched support for the Workers' Party incumbent, rooted in long-standing voter preferences tied to federal social programs and regional economic priorities. National polls from Nexus, Quaest, and PoderData through mid-August show Lula holding 39-42% overall, with substantially wider margins expected in his Northeastern base compared to tighter national figures against Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Sergipe and neighboring states reinforce this positioning ahead of the campaign's formal start. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among key demographics, targeted opposition messaging, or unforeseen national economic signals could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,965Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's commanding 96% implied probability to finish first in Sergipe's October 4 first round reflects the Northeast's entrenched support for the Workers' Party incumbent, rooted in long-standing voter preferences tied to federal social programs and regional economic priorities. National polls from Nexus, Quaest, and PoderData through mid-August show Lula holding 39-42% overall, with substantially wider margins expected in his Northeastern base compared to tighter national figures against Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Sergipe and neighboring states reinforce this positioning ahead of the campaign's formal start. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among key demographics, targeted opposition messaging, or unforeseen national economic signals could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$2,965Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's commanding 96% implied probability to finish first in Sergipe's October 4 first round reflects the Northeast's entrenched support for the Workers' Party incumbent, rooted in long-standing voter preferences tied to federal social programs and regional economic priorities. National polls from Nexus, Quaest, and PoderData through mid-August show Lula holding 39-42% overall, with substantially wider margins expected in his Northeastern base compared to tighter national figures against Flavio Bolsonaro. Historical voting patterns in Sergipe and neighboring states reinforce this positioning ahead of the campaign's formal start. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among key demographics, targeted opposition messaging, or unforeseen national economic signals could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages for the frontrunner in this state.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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