Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in São Paulo during the October 4 first round, reflecting the state's established right-wing voter base and the Liberal Party's organizational strength there. His July 2026 candidacy launch in the state, backed by his father's endorsement, has consolidated support among conservative and evangelical voters ahead of the national contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent CNT/MDA and Quaest surveys show Lula leading nationally in the first round but with narrower margins than earlier in the year, while fragmented opposition from figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos dilutes their São Paulo prospects. Traders appear to weigh these state-specific dynamics and historical patterns of strong PL performance in the region over broader national polling trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlavio Bolsonaro 76%
Lula 15%
Zema 5%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
76%
Lula
15%
Zema
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 76%
Lula 15%
Zema 5%
Ronaldo Caiado 2.6%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$447 Wol.
76%
Lula
$230 Wol.
15%
Zema
$89 Wol.
5%
Ronaldo Caiado
$113 Wol.
3%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$134 Wol.
2%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$148 Wol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$147 Wol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$142 Wol.
1%
Samara
$139 Wol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$139 Wol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$147 Wol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$147 Wol.
1%
Renan Santos
$130 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in São Paulo during the October 4 first round, reflecting the state's established right-wing voter base and the Liberal Party's organizational strength there. His July 2026 candidacy launch in the state, backed by his father's endorsement, has consolidated support among conservative and evangelical voters ahead of the national contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent CNT/MDA and Quaest surveys show Lula leading nationally in the first round but with narrower margins than earlier in the year, while fragmented opposition from figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos dilutes their São Paulo prospects. Traders appear to weigh these state-specific dynamics and historical patterns of strong PL performance in the region over broader national polling trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,153Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in São Paulo during the October 4 first round, reflecting the state's established right-wing voter base and the Liberal Party's organizational strength there. His July 2026 candidacy launch in the state, backed by his father's endorsement, has consolidated support among conservative and evangelical voters ahead of the national contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent CNT/MDA and Quaest surveys show Lula leading nationally in the first round but with narrower margins than earlier in the year, while fragmented opposition from figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos dilutes their São Paulo prospects. Traders appear to weigh these state-specific dynamics and historical patterns of strong PL performance in the region over broader national polling trends.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$2,153Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in trader consensus for first place in São Paulo during the October 4 first round, reflecting the state's established right-wing voter base and the Liberal Party's organizational strength there. His July 2026 candidacy launch in the state, backed by his father's endorsement, has consolidated support among conservative and evangelical voters ahead of the national contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Recent CNT/MDA and Quaest surveys show Lula leading nationally in the first round but with narrower margins than earlier in the year, while fragmented opposition from figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos dilutes their São Paulo prospects. Traders appear to weigh these state-specific dynamics and historical patterns of strong PL performance in the region over broader national polling trends.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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