Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its estimated 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these sites since June 2025, preventing verification of material status or any resumed activities, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding intended to freeze the program and enable down-blending has collapsed amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain site but no confirmed enrichment or weaponization work. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these physical and monitoring barriers make rapid breakout or testing highly impractical without detectable rebuilding or policy reversal. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected diversion of material, or leadership shifts could still alter timelines within the window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% szansa
$251,672 Wol.
$251,672 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% szansa
$251,672 Wol.
$251,672 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its estimated 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these sites since June 2025, preventing verification of material status or any resumed activities, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding intended to freeze the program and enable down-blending has collapsed amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain site but no confirmed enrichment or weaponization work. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these physical and monitoring barriers make rapid breakout or testing highly impractical without detectable rebuilding or policy reversal. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected diversion of material, or leadership shifts could still alter timelines within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$251,672Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its estimated 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these sites since June 2025, preventing verification of material status or any resumed activities, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding intended to freeze the program and enable down-blending has collapsed amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain site but no confirmed enrichment or weaponization work. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these physical and monitoring barriers make rapid breakout or testing highly impractical without detectable rebuilding or policy reversal. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected diversion of material, or leadership shifts could still alter timelines within the window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$251,672Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its estimated 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels and rendering most centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have been denied access to these sites since June 2025, preventing verification of material status or any resumed activities, while a June 2026 memorandum of understanding intended to freeze the program and enable down-blending has collapsed amid ongoing conflict. Satellite imagery shows limited construction at the undeclared Pickaxe Mountain site but no confirmed enrichment or weaponization work. Traders assign 95.5% probability against a nuclear test before 2027 because these physical and monitoring barriers make rapid breakout or testing highly impractical without detectable rebuilding or policy reversal. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected diversion of material, or leadership shifts could still alter timelines within the window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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