The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, sparked debate over whether activities would include full explosive tests or remain limited to non-critical and hydrodynamic experiments. Subsequent administration statements have emphasized continuity with existing programs rather than a return to underground nuclear explosions. Key variables for traders include any shift in policy implementation timelines, Senate oversight hearings, or verifiable seismic or diplomatic signals through the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$795,287 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
5%
$795,287 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,555 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$76,920 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, sparked debate over whether activities would include full explosive tests or remain limited to non-critical and hydrodynamic experiments. Subsequent administration statements have emphasized continuity with existing programs rather than a return to underground nuclear explosions. Key variables for traders include any shift in policy implementation timelines, Senate oversight hearings, or verifiable seismic or diplomatic signals through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$795,287Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, sparked debate over whether activities would include full explosive tests or remain limited to non-critical and hydrodynamic experiments. Subsequent administration statements have emphasized continuity with existing programs rather than a return to underground nuclear explosions. Key variables for traders include any shift in policy implementation timelines, Senate oversight hearings, or verifiable seismic or diplomatic signals through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$795,287Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program and subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site to certify warhead reliability without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by those states, sparked debate over whether activities would include full explosive tests or remain limited to non-critical and hydrodynamic experiments. Subsequent administration statements have emphasized continuity with existing programs rather than a return to underground nuclear explosions. Key variables for traders include any shift in policy implementation timelines, Senate oversight hearings, or verifiable seismic or diplomatic signals through the end of 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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