Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict, including tanker attacks, mine threats, Iranian routing restrictions, and U.S. sanctions enforcement, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at single-digit daily levels through late August 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show volumes at roughly 3-8% of the pre-crisis baseline of 85-plus vessels per day, with visible commodity transits often falling to 4-7 amid AIS-dark operations and risk aversion. This environment has driven trader consensus toward the 20-39 weekly outcome at 78% implied probability, as recent strikes on vessels like the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity and stalled corridor talks reinforce suppressed flows. Upcoming data releases on early September traffic may test whether any marginal recovery materializes before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 78%
<20 19%
40-59 3.7%
60-79 1.5%
$41,140 Wol.
$41,140 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
19%
20-39
78%
40-59
4%
60-79
2%
80+
1%
20-39 78%
<20 19%
40-59 3.7%
60-79 1.5%
$41,140 Wol.
$41,140 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$10,997 Wol.
19%
20-39
$22,651 Wol.
78%
40-59
$4,397 Wol.
4%
60-79
$1,740 Wol.
2%
80+
$1,354 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict, including tanker attacks, mine threats, Iranian routing restrictions, and U.S. sanctions enforcement, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at single-digit daily levels through late August 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show volumes at roughly 3-8% of the pre-crisis baseline of 85-plus vessels per day, with visible commodity transits often falling to 4-7 amid AIS-dark operations and risk aversion. This environment has driven trader consensus toward the 20-39 weekly outcome at 78% implied probability, as recent strikes on vessels like the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity and stalled corridor talks reinforce suppressed flows. Upcoming data releases on early September traffic may test whether any marginal recovery materializes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$41,140Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict, including tanker attacks, mine threats, Iranian routing restrictions, and U.S. sanctions enforcement, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at single-digit daily levels through late August 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show volumes at roughly 3-8% of the pre-crisis baseline of 85-plus vessels per day, with visible commodity transits often falling to 4-7 amid AIS-dark operations and risk aversion. This environment has driven trader consensus toward the 20-39 weekly outcome at 78% implied probability, as recent strikes on vessels like the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity and stalled corridor talks reinforce suppressed flows. Upcoming data releases on early September traffic may test whether any marginal recovery materializes before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$41,140Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the ongoing Iran conflict, including tanker attacks, mine threats, Iranian routing restrictions, and U.S. sanctions enforcement, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at single-digit daily levels through late August 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and IMF PortWatch show volumes at roughly 3-8% of the pre-crisis baseline of 85-plus vessels per day, with visible commodity transits often falling to 4-7 amid AIS-dark operations and risk aversion. This environment has driven trader consensus toward the 20-39 weekly outcome at 78% implied probability, as recent strikes on vessels like the Sidr and Senegal Prosperity and stalled corridor talks reinforce suppressed flows. Upcoming data releases on early September traffic may test whether any marginal recovery materializes before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania