Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 and reported tanker attacks through early September, have kept commercial traffic severely constrained. Visible commodity-vessel transits averaged roughly five per day in late August per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data, well below the pre-crisis baseline of 85–138 daily, as operators cite mine risks, Iranian routing mandates, vessel blacklists, and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed weekly volumes into the low dozens, aligning trader consensus with the 20–39 range while capping upside potential absent a rapid de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any further Central Command clearances or Iranian enforcement actions that could shift risk appetite before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 71%
<20 26%
40-59 4.3%
60-79 1.0%
$42,944 Wol.
$42,944 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
26%
20-39
71%
40-59
4%
60-79
1%
80+
1%
20-39 71%
<20 26%
40-59 4.3%
60-79 1.0%
$42,944 Wol.
$42,944 Wol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$11,631 Wol.
26%
20-39
$23,537 Wol.
71%
40-59
$4,503 Wol.
4%
60-79
$1,836 Wol.
1%
80+
$1,437 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 and reported tanker attacks through early September, have kept commercial traffic severely constrained. Visible commodity-vessel transits averaged roughly five per day in late August per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data, well below the pre-crisis baseline of 85–138 daily, as operators cite mine risks, Iranian routing mandates, vessel blacklists, and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed weekly volumes into the low dozens, aligning trader consensus with the 20–39 range while capping upside potential absent a rapid de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any further Central Command clearances or Iranian enforcement actions that could shift risk appetite before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Wolumen
$42,944Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 and reported tanker attacks through early September, have kept commercial traffic severely constrained. Visible commodity-vessel transits averaged roughly five per day in late August per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data, well below the pre-crisis baseline of 85–138 daily, as operators cite mine risks, Iranian routing mandates, vessel blacklists, and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed weekly volumes into the low dozens, aligning trader consensus with the 20–39 range while capping upside potential absent a rapid de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any further Central Command clearances or Iranian enforcement actions that could shift risk appetite before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$42,944Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges, including American strikes on Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz on August 30 and reported tanker attacks through early September, have kept commercial traffic severely constrained. Visible commodity-vessel transits averaged roughly five per day in late August per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data, well below the pre-crisis baseline of 85–138 daily, as operators cite mine risks, Iranian routing mandates, vessel blacklists, and elevated war-risk premiums. These conditions have compressed weekly volumes into the low dozens, aligning trader consensus with the 20–39 range while capping upside potential absent a rapid de-escalation. Key near-term catalysts include any further Central Command clearances or Iranian enforcement actions that could shift risk appetite before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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