Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high near 30–31°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air under partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling. Low precipitation risk early in the day supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (48.5%), with 29°C and 31°C as close alternatives reflecting minor model spread in maximum temperatures. Historical September baselines average 26–28°C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly; traders appear to price in the consensus range while discounting outliers given typical diurnal variability and afternoon humidity increases that cap further rises. Updated runs from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
30°C 49%
29°C 27%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
3%
28°C
7%
29°C
27%
30°C
49%
31°C
15%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 49%
29°C 27%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$1,450 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$358 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$304 Wol.
3%
28°C
$449 Wol.
7%
29°C
$1,449 Wol.
27%
30°C
$1,105 Wol.
49%
31°C
$2,674 Wol.
15%
32°C
$408 Wol.
4%
33°C
$247 Wol.
2%
34°C
$314 Wol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$673 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high near 30–31°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air under partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling. Low precipitation risk early in the day supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (48.5%), with 29°C and 31°C as close alternatives reflecting minor model spread in maximum temperatures. Historical September baselines average 26–28°C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly; traders appear to price in the consensus range while discounting outliers given typical diurnal variability and afternoon humidity increases that cap further rises. Updated runs from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,432Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high near 30–31°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air under partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling. Low precipitation risk early in the day supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (48.5%), with 29°C and 31°C as close alternatives reflecting minor model spread in maximum temperatures. Historical September baselines average 26–28°C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly; traders appear to price in the consensus range while discounting outliers given typical diurnal variability and afternoon humidity increases that cap further rises. Updated runs from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$9,432Data zakończenia
Sep 14, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high near 30–31°C for Tokyo on September 14, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer, humid air under partly cloudy skies that permit strong daytime heating while limiting radiative cooling. Low precipitation risk early in the day supports the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (48.5%), with 29°C and 31°C as close alternatives reflecting minor model spread in maximum temperatures. Historical September baselines average 26–28°C, so current conditions represent a modest positive anomaly; traders appear to price in the consensus range while discounting outliers given typical diurnal variability and afternoon humidity increases that cap further rises. Updated runs from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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