Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, GFS, and ECMWF models converge on a maximum of 29–31 °C for Istanbul on August 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds, directly supporting the market’s clustering around 30 °C (44.5 % implied probability). This range aligns with late-summer climatology, when average daily highs reach 28–30 °C near the Bosphorus, whose marine influence moderates extremes. Recent model runs show no strong heat advection or cloud cover to push values notably higher or lower, keeping 31 °C and 29 °C as secondary outcomes at 25 % and 21 %. Traders weigh the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance, which favors resolution near the central tendency absent last-minute forecast shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 18?
30°C 45%
31°C 25%
29°C 21%
32°C 7%
NOWE
$34,364 Wol.
NOWE
$34,364 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C
21%
30°C
45%
31°C
25%
32°C
7%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 45%
31°C 25%
29°C 21%
32°C 7%
NOWE
$34,364 Wol.
NOWE
$34,364 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
24°C or below
$292 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$1,140 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$883 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$1,733 Wol.
1%
28°C
$2,441 Wol.
6%
29°C
$5,127 Wol.
21%
30°C
$4,613 Wol.
45%
31°C
$6,221 Wol.
25%
32°C
$2,979 Wol.
7%
33°C
$6,925 Wol.
1%
34°C or higher
$2,010 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, GFS, and ECMWF models converge on a maximum of 29–31 °C for Istanbul on August 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds, directly supporting the market’s clustering around 30 °C (44.5 % implied probability). This range aligns with late-summer climatology, when average daily highs reach 28–30 °C near the Bosphorus, whose marine influence moderates extremes. Recent model runs show no strong heat advection or cloud cover to push values notably higher or lower, keeping 31 °C and 29 °C as secondary outcomes at 25 % and 21 %. Traders weigh the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance, which favors resolution near the central tendency absent last-minute forecast shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$34,364Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, GFS, and ECMWF models converge on a maximum of 29–31 °C for Istanbul on August 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds, directly supporting the market’s clustering around 30 °C (44.5 % implied probability). This range aligns with late-summer climatology, when average daily highs reach 28–30 °C near the Bosphorus, whose marine influence moderates extremes. Recent model runs show no strong heat advection or cloud cover to push values notably higher or lower, keeping 31 °C and 29 °C as secondary outcomes at 25 % and 21 %. Traders weigh the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance, which favors resolution near the central tendency absent last-minute forecast shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$34,364Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service, GFS, and ECMWF models converge on a maximum of 29–31 °C for Istanbul on August 18 under sunny to partly cloudy skies with light winds, directly supporting the market’s clustering around 30 °C (44.5 % implied probability). This range aligns with late-summer climatology, when average daily highs reach 28–30 °C near the Bosphorus, whose marine influence moderates extremes. Recent model runs show no strong heat advection or cloud cover to push values notably higher or lower, keeping 31 °C and 29 °C as secondary outcomes at 25 % and 21 %. Traders weigh the narrow uncertainty band in ensemble guidance, which favors resolution near the central tendency absent last-minute forecast shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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