Current forecast guidance from NOAA and local models positions the daily high near 100°F as the most likely outcome for Dallas on August 4, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability for 100-101°F. Normal early-August maxima average 95–96°F, but persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow support strong afternoon heating, with recent model runs showing consensus around 99–102°F and limited moisture to moderate temperatures. The secondary 25.5% probability on 102-103°F reflects upside potential from any delayed cloud cover or drier air, while lower bins capture the smaller chance of modest cooling from convective development; traders are weighting real-time observational trends and updated guidance that keep the distribution centered on low-100s values.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Dallas on August 4?
Highest temperature in Dallas on August 4?
100-101°F 63%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 13%
97°F or below 1.5%
NOWE
$14,341 Wol.
NOWE
$14,341 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
97°F or below
2%
98-99°F
13%
100-101°F
63%
102-103°F
26%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110-111°F
<1%
112-113°F
<1%
114-115°F
<1%
116°F or higher
<1%
100-101°F 63%
102-103°F 26%
98-99°F 13%
97°F or below 1.5%
NOWE
$14,341 Wol.
NOWE
$14,341 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
97°F or below
$1,947 Wol.
2%
98-99°F
$1,768 Wol.
13%
100-101°F
$4,623 Wol.
63%
102-103°F
$1,345 Wol.
26%
104-105°F
$1,650 Wol.
<1%
106-107°F
$958 Wol.
<1%
108-109°F
$385 Wol.
<1%
110-111°F
$389 Wol.
<1%
112-113°F
$519 Wol.
<1%
114-115°F
$367 Wol.
<1%
116°F or higher
$389 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and local models positions the daily high near 100°F as the most likely outcome for Dallas on August 4, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability for 100-101°F. Normal early-August maxima average 95–96°F, but persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow support strong afternoon heating, with recent model runs showing consensus around 99–102°F and limited moisture to moderate temperatures. The secondary 25.5% probability on 102-103°F reflects upside potential from any delayed cloud cover or drier air, while lower bins capture the smaller chance of modest cooling from convective development; traders are weighting real-time observational trends and updated guidance that keep the distribution centered on low-100s values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,341Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from NOAA and local models positions the daily high near 100°F as the most likely outcome for Dallas on August 4, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability for 100-101°F. Normal early-August maxima average 95–96°F, but persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow support strong afternoon heating, with recent model runs showing consensus around 99–102°F and limited moisture to moderate temperatures. The secondary 25.5% probability on 102-103°F reflects upside potential from any delayed cloud cover or drier air, while lower bins capture the smaller chance of modest cooling from convective development; traders are weighting real-time observational trends and updated guidance that keep the distribution centered on low-100s values.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$14,341Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from NOAA and local models positions the daily high near 100°F as the most likely outcome for Dallas on August 4, aligning with the market’s leading 58.5% implied probability for 100-101°F. Normal early-August maxima average 95–96°F, but persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow support strong afternoon heating, with recent model runs showing consensus around 99–102°F and limited moisture to moderate temperatures. The secondary 25.5% probability on 102-103°F reflects upside potential from any delayed cloud cover or drier air, while lower bins capture the smaller chance of modest cooling from convective development; traders are weighting real-time observational trends and updated guidance that keep the distribution centered on low-100s values.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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