Current atmospheric conditions, shaped by a strengthened Pacific High and expected cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 6, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly split between 25°C (48.5%) and 26°C (46.5%). These setups limit nighttime radiative cooling, with high humidity trapping heat near the surface and the urban heat island effect in central Tokyo elevating minimums above regional baselines. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures through mid-August, consistent with recent model runs showing overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius range. Traders weigh subtle variables such as exact cloud thickness, wind patterns, and boundary-layer moisture that could shift the daily minimum by 1°C, creating genuine uncertainty reflected in the near-even probabilities and lower odds on cooler outcomes like 24°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?
26°C 45%
25°C 42%
24°C 14%
27°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 6, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
8%
24°C
14%
25°C
42%
26°C
45%
27°C
9%
28°C
6%
29°C
7%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 45%
25°C 42%
24°C 14%
27°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 6, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Wol.
1%
21°C
$0 Wol.
1%
22°C
$0 Wol.
5%
23°C
$8 Wol.
8%
24°C
$8 Wol.
14%
25°C
$8 Wol.
42%
26°C
$13 Wol.
45%
27°C
$8 Wol.
9%
28°C
$22 Wol.
6%
29°C
$27 Wol.
7%
30°C or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current atmospheric conditions, shaped by a strengthened Pacific High and expected cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 6, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly split between 25°C (48.5%) and 26°C (46.5%). These setups limit nighttime radiative cooling, with high humidity trapping heat near the surface and the urban heat island effect in central Tokyo elevating minimums above regional baselines. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures through mid-August, consistent with recent model runs showing overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius range. Traders weigh subtle variables such as exact cloud thickness, wind patterns, and boundary-layer moisture that could shift the daily minimum by 1°C, creating genuine uncertainty reflected in the near-even probabilities and lower odds on cooler outcomes like 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Wolumen
$94Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current atmospheric conditions, shaped by a strengthened Pacific High and expected cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 6, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly split between 25°C (48.5%) and 26°C (46.5%). These setups limit nighttime radiative cooling, with high humidity trapping heat near the surface and the urban heat island effect in central Tokyo elevating minimums above regional baselines. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures through mid-August, consistent with recent model runs showing overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius range. Traders weigh subtle variables such as exact cloud thickness, wind patterns, and boundary-layer moisture that could shift the daily minimum by 1°C, creating genuine uncertainty reflected in the near-even probabilities and lower odds on cooler outcomes like 24°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$94Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current atmospheric conditions, shaped by a strengthened Pacific High and expected cloudy skies over Tokyo on August 6, are the main drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly split between 25°C (48.5%) and 26°C (46.5%). These setups limit nighttime radiative cooling, with high humidity trapping heat near the surface and the urban heat island effect in central Tokyo elevating minimums above regional baselines. Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks project above-normal temperatures through mid-August, consistent with recent model runs showing overnight lows in the mid-20s Celsius range. Traders weigh subtle variables such as exact cloud thickness, wind patterns, and boundary-layer moisture that could shift the daily minimum by 1°C, creating genuine uncertainty reflected in the near-even probabilities and lower odds on cooler outcomes like 24°C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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