Ongoing heatwave conditions driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Korean Peninsula have produced daytime highs of 31–34°C in recent days, with KMA heat warnings active for Seoul and Incheon. Ensemble forecasts for August 4 indicate continued subsidence and strong solar insolation under mostly clear skies, supporting trader consensus around 34–35°C as the most probable peak; slight differences among these outcomes hinge on model variability in boundary-layer mixing, localized sea-breeze effects from Incheon, and any minor moisture advection that could temper maximum temperatures by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 30–31°C, but the current anomaly of 3–5°C above average—linked to the broader heat dome pattern—explains elevated probabilities for 36°C, while incoming tropical depression influences introduce modest downside risk for lower readings. Updated medium-range model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these margins ahead of market resolution.