Model consensus from the National Weather Service and private guidance centers on a daily maximum near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This alignment around the long-term average drives the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 84–85 °F bin, followed closely by the 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No strong warm or cool advection appears in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities clustered near normal and limiting odds of extremes. Traders continue to watch the next NWS forecast update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer moisture that could adjust the expected peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 4?
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 28%
82-83°F 16%
88-89°F 3%
NOWE
$18,777 Wol.
NOWE
$18,777 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
16%
84-85°F
50%
86-87°F
28%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 28%
82-83°F 16%
88-89°F 3%
NOWE
$18,777 Wol.
NOWE
$18,777 Wol.
Aug 4, 2026
75°F or below
$533 Wol.
<1%
76-77°F
$476 Wol.
<1%
78-79°F
$2,331 Wol.
1%
80-81°F
$1,543 Wol.
1%
82-83°F
$3,125 Wol.
16%
84-85°F
$3,475 Wol.
50%
86-87°F
$2,153 Wol.
28%
88-89°F
$2,222 Wol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,683 Wol.
<1%
92-93°F
$593 Wol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$643 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from the National Weather Service and private guidance centers on a daily maximum near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This alignment around the long-term average drives the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 84–85 °F bin, followed closely by the 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No strong warm or cool advection appears in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities clustered near normal and limiting odds of extremes. Traders continue to watch the next NWS forecast update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer moisture that could adjust the expected peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,777Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Model consensus from the National Weather Service and private guidance centers on a daily maximum near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This alignment around the long-term average drives the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 84–85 °F bin, followed closely by the 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No strong warm or cool advection appears in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities clustered near normal and limiting odds of extremes. Traders continue to watch the next NWS forecast update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer moisture that could adjust the expected peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$18,777Data zakończenia
Aug 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Model consensus from the National Weather Service and private guidance centers on a daily maximum near Chicago’s August 4 climatological normal of 83.7 °F, with mostly sunny skies and light winds supporting modest diurnal warming. This alignment around the long-term average drives the market’s heaviest weighting toward the 84–85 °F bin, followed closely by the 82–83 °F and 86–87 °F ranges. No strong warm or cool advection appears in the latest model runs, keeping probabilities clustered near normal and limiting odds of extremes. Traders continue to watch the next NWS forecast update for any shifts in 850-hPa temperatures or boundary-layer moisture that could adjust the expected peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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