Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration for Beijing on August 18 project a daily maximum near 31°C under thundershowers, with surface observations and model guidance showing temperatures ranging 30–32°C. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity promote afternoon convection that can suppress peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in exact maxima. These dynamics explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C and 32°C rather than extremes, as modest shifts in storm timing or insolation could tip the recorded high by 1–2°C before official resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on August 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 18?
31°C 33%
32°C 29%
30°C 18%
33°C 14%
NOWE
$22,808 Wol.
NOWE
$22,808 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
10%
30°C
18%
31°C
33%
32°C
29%
33°C
14%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 33%
32°C 29%
30°C 18%
33°C 14%
NOWE
$22,808 Wol.
NOWE
$22,808 Wol.
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
$3,565 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$2,599 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$3,390 Wol.
1%
29°C
$1,438 Wol.
10%
30°C
$2,629 Wol.
18%
31°C
$1,667 Wol.
33%
32°C
$2,458 Wol.
29%
33°C
$980 Wol.
14%
34°C
$1,656 Wol.
2%
35°C
$899 Wol.
1%
36°C or higher
$1,527 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration for Beijing on August 18 project a daily maximum near 31°C under thundershowers, with surface observations and model guidance showing temperatures ranging 30–32°C. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity promote afternoon convection that can suppress peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in exact maxima. These dynamics explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C and 32°C rather than extremes, as modest shifts in storm timing or insolation could tip the recorded high by 1–2°C before official resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$22,808Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration for Beijing on August 18 project a daily maximum near 31°C under thundershowers, with surface observations and model guidance showing temperatures ranging 30–32°C. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity promote afternoon convection that can suppress peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in exact maxima. These dynamics explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C and 32°C rather than extremes, as modest shifts in storm timing or insolation could tip the recorded high by 1–2°C before official resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$22,808Data zakończenia
Aug 18, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration for Beijing on August 18 project a daily maximum near 31°C under thundershowers, with surface observations and model guidance showing temperatures ranging 30–32°C. Persistent summer monsoon moisture and high humidity promote afternoon convection that can suppress peak heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling, while urban heat island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in exact maxima. These dynamics explain why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 31°C and 32°C rather than extremes, as modest shifts in storm timing or insolation could tip the recorded high by 1–2°C before official resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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