Recent AtlasIntel polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rising sharply to 41.7% in first-round simulations for the October 4 election, up 4.3 points in one week and within striking distance of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.1%. Earlier September surveys placed him in the low-to-mid 30s, but consistent gains across multiple pollsters reflect right-wing consolidation behind his candidacy, public reaction to Supreme Court developments, and stronger performance among independents. With other candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos holding single-digit shares, the fragmented field leaves room for Bolsonaro to clear 39% if his momentum holds through late September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano39%+ 86%
36-39% 11%
33-36% 2.9%
30-33% 1.0%
NOWE
$41,879 Wol.
NOWE
$41,879 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
<1%
30-33%
1%
33-36%
3%
36-39%
11%
39%+
86%
39%+ 86%
36-39% 11%
33-36% 2.9%
30-33% 1.0%
NOWE
$41,879 Wol.
NOWE
$41,879 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
<30%
$4,551 Wol.
<1%
30-33%
$4,592 Wol.
1%
33-36%
$5,020 Wol.
3%
36-39%
$8,365 Wol.
11%
39%+
$19,370 Wol.
86%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rising sharply to 41.7% in first-round simulations for the October 4 election, up 4.3 points in one week and within striking distance of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.1%. Earlier September surveys placed him in the low-to-mid 30s, but consistent gains across multiple pollsters reflect right-wing consolidation behind his candidacy, public reaction to Supreme Court developments, and stronger performance among independents. With other candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos holding single-digit shares, the fragmented field leaves room for Bolsonaro to clear 39% if his momentum holds through late September.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$41,879Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent AtlasIntel polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rising sharply to 41.7% in first-round simulations for the October 4 election, up 4.3 points in one week and within striking distance of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.1%. Earlier September surveys placed him in the low-to-mid 30s, but consistent gains across multiple pollsters reflect right-wing consolidation behind his candidacy, public reaction to Supreme Court developments, and stronger performance among independents. With other candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos holding single-digit shares, the fragmented field leaves room for Bolsonaro to clear 39% if his momentum holds through late September.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$41,879Data zakończenia
Oct 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent AtlasIntel polling shows Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, rising sharply to 41.7% in first-round simulations for the October 4 election, up 4.3 points in one week and within striking distance of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.1%. Earlier September surveys placed him in the low-to-mid 30s, but consistent gains across multiple pollsters reflect right-wing consolidation behind his candidacy, public reaction to Supreme Court developments, and stronger performance among independents. With other candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos holding single-digit shares, the fragmented field leaves room for Bolsonaro to clear 39% if his momentum holds through late September.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
42%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
33%
Will Augusto Cury win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
45%
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