Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 Wol.
$364,298 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 Wol.
$364,298 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$15,836 Wol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$30,151 Wol.
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$26,425 Wol.
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
$30,536 Wol.
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$10,745 Wol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$9,025 Wol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$14,226 Wol.
7%
Renan Santos Victory
$211,721 Wol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$4,889 Wol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,913 Wol.
<1%
Other
$5,830 Wol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$364,298Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$364,298Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from late August 2026 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–6 points in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38–41% and Flávio at 33–37% while other candidates remain below 5–8%. This narrow gap, consistent across Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and Indexa surveys, keeps the 5–10% and sub-5% victory margins closely priced as traders weigh a polarized electorate and high rejection rates near 50% for both frontrunners. The official campaign launch on August 16, skipped first debate, and start of free broadcast time have not yet produced decisive shifts. Upcoming September debates and the October 4 first-round vote could widen or close the margin depending on turnout among core PT and PL bases and any late movement among undecided voters.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
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