Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote consistently places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro second behind President Lula, with support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range while trailing candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. This positioning has consolidated right-leaning voters around the Liberal Party nominee as the main alternative to the incumbent Workers’ Party ticket. Campaign conventions, early free-airtime broadcasts, and tightening runoff simulations have reinforced rather than altered that hierarchy, with no late surge by other contenders sufficient to displace Flávio in aggregate surveys. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to him finishing second, reflecting the stable two-candidate dominance evident in the data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlávio Bolsonaro 89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.5%
Renan Santos 1.7%
Augusto Cury 1.1%
$6,487,095 Wol.
$6,487,095 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
2%
Augusto Cury
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.5%
Renan Santos 1.7%
Augusto Cury 1.1%
$6,487,095 Wol.
$6,487,095 Wol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
89%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
7%
Renan Santos
2%
Augusto Cury
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round vote consistently places Senator Flávio Bolsonaro second behind President Lula, with support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range while trailing candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema remain in single digits. This positioning has consolidated right-leaning voters around the Liberal Party nominee as the main alternative to the incumbent Workers’ Party ticket. Campaign conventions, early free-airtime broadcasts, and tightening runoff simulations have reinforced rather than altered that hierarchy, with no late surge by other contenders sufficient to displace Flávio in aggregate surveys. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to him finishing second, reflecting the stable two-candidate dominance evident in the data.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?
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