Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate, with recent Datafolha polling from mid-August showing him at 45% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. Withdrawals by other contenders such as Kim Kataguiri earlier in the year narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the governor, who maintains broad coalition backing from parties including PL, MDB, and PSD. Haddad, the PT nominee and former finance minister, faces elevated rejection rates that limit his ability to close the gap. Trader consensus reflected in current prices aligns with these trends and the state’s electoral history favoring strong incumbents, though late developments such as shifts in national political dynamics or turnout patterns could still affect first-round or runoff outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTarcísio de Freitas 97.2%
Fernando Haddad 2.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$290,610 Wol.
$290,610 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.2%
Fernando Haddad 2.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$290,610 Wol.
$290,610 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$132,589 Wol.
97%
Fernando Haddad
$48,034 Wol.
3%
Erika Hilton
$22,854 Wol.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,465 Wol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Wol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate, with recent Datafolha polling from mid-August showing him at 45% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. Withdrawals by other contenders such as Kim Kataguiri earlier in the year narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the governor, who maintains broad coalition backing from parties including PL, MDB, and PSD. Haddad, the PT nominee and former finance minister, faces elevated rejection rates that limit his ability to close the gap. Trader consensus reflected in current prices aligns with these trends and the state’s electoral history favoring strong incumbents, though late developments such as shifts in national political dynamics or turnout patterns could still affect first-round or runoff outcomes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$290,610Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate, with recent Datafolha polling from mid-August showing him at 45% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. Withdrawals by other contenders such as Kim Kataguiri earlier in the year narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the governor, who maintains broad coalition backing from parties including PL, MDB, and PSD. Haddad, the PT nominee and former finance minister, faces elevated rejection rates that limit his ability to close the gap. Trader consensus reflected in current prices aligns with these trends and the state’s electoral history favoring strong incumbents, though late developments such as shifts in national political dynamics or turnout patterns could still affect first-round or runoff outcomes.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$290,610Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republicanos candidate, with recent Datafolha polling from mid-August showing him at 45% in the first round against Fernando Haddad’s 27%. Withdrawals by other contenders such as Kim Kataguiri earlier in the year narrowed the field and consolidated support behind the governor, who maintains broad coalition backing from parties including PL, MDB, and PSD. Haddad, the PT nominee and former finance minister, faces elevated rejection rates that limit his ability to close the gap. Trader consensus reflected in current prices aligns with these trends and the state’s electoral history favoring strong incumbents, though late developments such as shifts in national political dynamics or turnout patterns could still affect first-round or runoff outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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