**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which erupted in February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels through late August.** Ongoing Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing schemes, vessel blacklisting, projectile risks, and U.S. sanctions have driven most commercial traffic into "dark" or shuttle operations, with daily AIS-detected crossings averaging just 4–7 vessels in the final weeks of the month—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100–138 per day. Market-implied odds reflect this entrenched low-volume environment, where trader consensus prices in continued restrictions rather than normalization. A credible de-escalation, formal ceasefire, or verified clearance of transit lanes could lift volumes, but recent retaliatory strikes and enforcement actions make such shifts unlikely without major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 98.2%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,388 Wol.
$110,388 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
98%
20-40
<1%
40-60
<1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 98.2%
20-40 <1%
40-60 <1%
60-80 <1%
$110,388 Wol.
$110,388 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$61,165 Wol.
98%
20-40
$14,539 Wol.
<1%
40-60
$14,967 Wol.
<1%
60-80
$11,339 Wol.
<1%
80+
$8,378 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which erupted in February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels through late August.** Ongoing Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing schemes, vessel blacklisting, projectile risks, and U.S. sanctions have driven most commercial traffic into "dark" or shuttle operations, with daily AIS-detected crossings averaging just 4–7 vessels in the final weeks of the month—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100–138 per day. Market-implied odds reflect this entrenched low-volume environment, where trader consensus prices in continued restrictions rather than normalization. A credible de-escalation, formal ceasefire, or verified clearance of transit lanes could lift volumes, but recent retaliatory strikes and enforcement actions make such shifts unlikely without major diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$110,388Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which erupted in February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels through late August.** Ongoing Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing schemes, vessel blacklisting, projectile risks, and U.S. sanctions have driven most commercial traffic into "dark" or shuttle operations, with daily AIS-detected crossings averaging just 4–7 vessels in the final weeks of the month—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100–138 per day. Market-implied odds reflect this entrenched low-volume environment, where trader consensus prices in continued restrictions rather than normalization. A credible de-escalation, formal ceasefire, or verified clearance of transit lanes could lift volumes, but recent retaliatory strikes and enforcement actions make such shifts unlikely without major diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$110,388Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Israel conflict with Iran, which erupted in February 2026, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at severely depressed levels through late August.** Ongoing Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing schemes, vessel blacklisting, projectile risks, and U.S. sanctions have driven most commercial traffic into "dark" or shuttle operations, with daily AIS-detected crossings averaging just 4–7 vessels in the final weeks of the month—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100–138 per day. Market-implied odds reflect this entrenched low-volume environment, where trader consensus prices in continued restrictions rather than normalization. A credible de-escalation, formal ceasefire, or verified clearance of transit lanes could lift volumes, but recent retaliatory strikes and enforcement actions make such shifts unlikely without major diplomatic breakthroughs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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