President Trump's administration has escalated economic pressure on Cuba through an executive order imposing oil-related tariffs, sanctions, and an indictment of Raúl Castro, while conducting military contingency planning and deploying assets like the USS Nimitz. However, these steps have emphasized negotiations, including a CIA director's meeting in Havana, rather than direct intervention. Ongoing talks, U.S. commitments in other theaters such as Iran, and the political costs of a full-scale invasion or occupation have kept any operation off the table through mid-August. Traders view these diplomatic and economic channels, combined with the absence of decisive military orders, as the dominant factors sustaining the strong consensus against a 2026 invasion.