Elon Musk's recent posting cadence on X, averaging 25–30 posts daily in mid-August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the August 18–25 window. Routine engagement around AI scaling, orbital compute, and platform features sustains this baseline without major external catalysts, pushing implied probabilities toward the 160–219 range where leading bins cluster tightly at 16.5–19.5%. Historical patterns show spikes from controversy or product announcements can push totals higher, yet the absence of imminent events like regulatory hearings or company milestones favors steady output. Traders weigh the platform owner's consistent high-volume style against potential quiet stretches, with guild-like consistency in recent resolved markets reinforcing the competitive middle bins over extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日180-199 20%
160-179 19%
200-219 18%
140-159 17%
$33,065 Vol.
$33,065 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
17%
160-179
19%
180-199
20%
200-219
18%
220-239
17%
240-259
4%
260-279
4%
280-299
2%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 20%
160-179 19%
200-219 18%
140-159 17%
$33,065 Vol.
$33,065 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
17%
160-179
19%
180-199
20%
200-219
18%
220-239
17%
240-259
4%
260-279
4%
280-299
2%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's recent posting cadence on X, averaging 25–30 posts daily in mid-August 2026, anchors trader sentiment for the August 18–25 window. Routine engagement around AI scaling, orbital compute, and platform features sustains this baseline without major external catalysts, pushing implied probabilities toward the 160–219 range where leading bins cluster tightly at 16.5–19.5%. Historical patterns show spikes from controversy or product announcements can push totals higher, yet the absence of imminent events like regulatory hearings or company milestones favors steady output. Traders weigh the platform owner's consistent high-volume style against potential quiet stretches, with guild-like consistency in recent resolved markets reinforcing the competitive middle bins over extremes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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