**Ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 MOU expiration has led traders to assign an 80.5% probability that no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final bilateral deal will pass by December 31.** The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day window—now expired without extension—for converting the ceasefire framework into a comprehensive accord covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with any final agreement to receive binding UNSC endorsement. Direct talks stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, persistent disagreements over uranium inspections and enrichment limits, sanctions timelines, and Hormuz access. Recent mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman has produced only limited technical discussions on navigation corridors, without advancing core nuclear or sanctions elements required for a UNSC resolution. US officials have signaled further sanctions pressure and asserted control over the strait, while Iranian statements emphasize no restart of negotiations absent prior MOU implementation. These developments, combined with the absence of a finalized accord or scheduled UNSC action, underpin the market’s assessment that the structural barriers and timeline constraints make passage by year-end improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
20% 確率
$193,194 Vol.
$193,194 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
20% 確率
$193,194 Vol.
$193,194 Vol.
2026/12/30
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 MOU expiration has led traders to assign an 80.5% probability that no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final bilateral deal will pass by December 31.**
The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day window—now expired without extension—for converting the ceasefire framework into a comprehensive accord covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with any final agreement to receive binding UNSC endorsement. Direct talks stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, persistent disagreements over uranium inspections and enrichment limits, sanctions timelines, and Hormuz access. Recent mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman has produced only limited technical discussions on navigation corridors, without advancing core nuclear or sanctions elements required for a UNSC resolution.
US officials have signaled further sanctions pressure and asserted control over the strait, while Iranian statements emphasize no restart of negotiations absent prior MOU implementation. These developments, combined with the absence of a finalized accord or scheduled UNSC action, underpin the market’s assessment that the structural barriers and timeline constraints make passage by year-end improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
音量
$193,194終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 MOU expiration has led traders to assign an 80.5% probability that no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final bilateral deal will pass by December 31.**
The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day window—now expired without extension—for converting the ceasefire framework into a comprehensive accord covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with any final agreement to receive binding UNSC endorsement. Direct talks stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, persistent disagreements over uranium inspections and enrichment limits, sanctions timelines, and Hormuz access. Recent mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman has produced only limited technical discussions on navigation corridors, without advancing core nuclear or sanctions elements required for a UNSC resolution.
US officials have signaled further sanctions pressure and asserted control over the strait, while Iranian statements emphasize no restart of negotiations absent prior MOU implementation. These developments, combined with the absence of a finalized accord or scheduled UNSC action, underpin the market’s assessment that the structural barriers and timeline constraints make passage by year-end improbable.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$193,194終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing impasse in US-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 MOU expiration has led traders to assign an 80.5% probability that no UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final bilateral deal will pass by December 31.** The June 17 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding outlined a 60-day window—now expired without extension—for converting the ceasefire framework into a comprehensive accord covering Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and related issues, with any final agreement to receive binding UNSC endorsement. Direct talks stalled amid mutual accusations of violations, persistent disagreements over uranium inspections and enrichment limits, sanctions timelines, and Hormuz access. Recent mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman has produced only limited technical discussions on navigation corridors, without advancing core nuclear or sanctions elements required for a UNSC resolution. US officials have signaled further sanctions pressure and asserted control over the strait, while Iranian statements emphasize no restart of negotiations absent prior MOU implementation. These developments, combined with the absence of a finalized accord or scheduled UNSC action, underpin the market’s assessment that the structural barriers and timeline constraints make passage by year-end improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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