The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the 2025–2026 protests, leadership decapitation during the US-Israeli conflict, and subsequent ceasefire under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, enabling rapid succession and suppression of unrest that spanned all provinces. As of late August 2026, fresh US Treasury sanctions and economic measures target the rial’s record lows and reconstruction needs, yet ongoing diplomacy involving Oman and Pakistan on the Strait of Hormuz signals continued regime engagement rather than immediate breakdown. Historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under sanctions and internal repression support the view that structural barriers to rapid regime change remain intact through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
$25,242,706 Vol.
$25,242,706 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
8% 確率
$25,242,706 Vol.
$25,242,706 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the 2025–2026 protests, leadership decapitation during the US-Israeli conflict, and subsequent ceasefire under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, enabling rapid succession and suppression of unrest that spanned all provinces. As of late August 2026, fresh US Treasury sanctions and economic measures target the rial’s record lows and reconstruction needs, yet ongoing diplomacy involving Oman and Pakistan on the Strait of Hormuz signals continued regime engagement rather than immediate breakdown. Historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under sanctions and internal repression support the view that structural barriers to rapid regime change remain intact through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$25,242,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the 2025–2026 protests, leadership decapitation during the US-Israeli conflict, and subsequent ceasefire under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, enabling rapid succession and suppression of unrest that spanned all provinces. As of late August 2026, fresh US Treasury sanctions and economic measures target the rial’s record lows and reconstruction needs, yet ongoing diplomacy involving Oman and Pakistan on the Strait of Hormuz signals continued regime engagement rather than immediate breakdown. Historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under sanctions and internal repression support the view that structural barriers to rapid regime change remain intact through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$25,242,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the 2025–2026 protests, leadership decapitation during the US-Israeli conflict, and subsequent ceasefire under new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei underpins the 92.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Security forces maintained cohesion without major defections, enabling rapid succession and suppression of unrest that spanned all provinces. As of late August 2026, fresh US Treasury sanctions and economic measures target the rial’s record lows and reconstruction needs, yet ongoing diplomacy involving Oman and Pakistan on the Strait of Hormuz signals continued regime engagement rather than immediate breakdown. Historical patterns of authoritarian endurance under sanctions and internal repression support the view that structural barriers to rapid regime change remain intact through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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