Israel's 25th Knesset voted in July 2026 to dissolve itself, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 and shifting the current coalition government into a caretaker period ahead of the vote. This procedural step, following months of coalition strain and polling showing limited paths to a renewed majority, reduces the immediate incentive or procedural window for a formal confidence vote in the sitting parliament. Opposition efforts to advance no-confidence motions have largely paused amid the dissolution timeline and budget approvals earlier in the year. With the new Knesset unlikely to convene until after the October results and coalition negotiations, traders assign a 60% implied probability against any such vote occurring by year-end, reflecting the dominance of the electoral calendar over routine parliamentary confidence procedures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
40% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's 25th Knesset voted in July 2026 to dissolve itself, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 and shifting the current coalition government into a caretaker period ahead of the vote. This procedural step, following months of coalition strain and polling showing limited paths to a renewed majority, reduces the immediate incentive or procedural window for a formal confidence vote in the sitting parliament. Opposition efforts to advance no-confidence motions have largely paused amid the dissolution timeline and budget approvals earlier in the year. With the new Knesset unlikely to convene until after the October results and coalition negotiations, traders assign a 60% implied probability against any such vote occurring by year-end, reflecting the dominance of the electoral calendar over routine parliamentary confidence procedures.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
音量
$1,499終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's 25th Knesset voted in July 2026 to dissolve itself, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 and shifting the current coalition government into a caretaker period ahead of the vote. This procedural step, following months of coalition strain and polling showing limited paths to a renewed majority, reduces the immediate incentive or procedural window for a formal confidence vote in the sitting parliament. Opposition efforts to advance no-confidence motions have largely paused amid the dissolution timeline and budget approvals earlier in the year. With the new Knesset unlikely to convene until after the October results and coalition negotiations, traders assign a 60% implied probability against any such vote occurring by year-end, reflecting the dominance of the electoral calendar over routine parliamentary confidence procedures.
Israel is scheduled to hold Knesset elections on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Knesset votes on whether to express confidence in a new government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A vote will qualify regardless of its passage. A motion of no confidence in an existing government will not qualify.
The continuation in office of the outgoing caretaker government will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,499終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:28 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's 25th Knesset voted in July 2026 to dissolve itself, scheduling legislative elections for October 27 and shifting the current coalition government into a caretaker period ahead of the vote. This procedural step, following months of coalition strain and polling showing limited paths to a renewed majority, reduces the immediate incentive or procedural window for a formal confidence vote in the sitting parliament. Opposition efforts to advance no-confidence motions have largely paused amid the dissolution timeline and budget approvals earlier in the year. With the new Knesset unlikely to convene until after the October results and coalition negotiations, traders assign a 60% implied probability against any such vote occurring by year-end, reflecting the dominance of the electoral calendar over routine parliamentary confidence procedures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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