Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows the right-wing bloc aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition bloc near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently clearing the 61-seat majority threshold. Traders nonetheless price the probability of a hung parliament at only around 34 percent because Israeli elections typically produce stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have demonstrated coalition discipline in prior cycles, and minor parties near the 3.25 percent threshold can shift seats toward one side without fracturing negotiations. Upcoming primaries, candidate list finalization in September, and any security developments before election day remain the main variables that could alter bloc totals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日35% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/26
35% 確率
新規
新規
2026/10/26
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows the right-wing bloc aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition bloc near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently clearing the 61-seat majority threshold. Traders nonetheless price the probability of a hung parliament at only around 34 percent because Israeli elections typically produce stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have demonstrated coalition discipline in prior cycles, and minor parties near the 3.25 percent threshold can shift seats toward one side without fracturing negotiations. Upcoming primaries, candidate list finalization in September, and any security developments before election day remain the main variables that could alter bloc totals.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
音量
$2,584終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows the right-wing bloc aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition bloc near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently clearing the 61-seat majority threshold. Traders nonetheless price the probability of a hung parliament at only around 34 percent because Israeli elections typically produce stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have demonstrated coalition discipline in prior cycles, and minor parties near the 3.25 percent threshold can shift seats toward one side without fracturing negotiations. Upcoming primaries, candidate list finalization in September, and any security developments before election day remain the main variables that could alter bloc totals.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$2,584終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows the right-wing bloc aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu projected at roughly 48–53 seats and the main opposition bloc near 58–62 seats, with neither side consistently clearing the 61-seat majority threshold. Traders nonetheless price the probability of a hung parliament at only around 34 percent because Israeli elections typically produce stable bloc alignments, right-wing parties have demonstrated coalition discipline in prior cycles, and minor parties near the 3.25 percent threshold can shift seats toward one side without fracturing negotiations. Upcoming primaries, candidate list finalization in September, and any security developments before election day remain the main variables that could alter bloc totals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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