Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21-23 seats, down from its current 32, amid sustained public dissatisfaction with the government's security and coalition management since the 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent conflicts. Opposition blocs, including new entrants like Yashar, frequently edge toward or reach a narrow majority in surveys from outlets such as Maariv and Channel 13. Likud's August 17 primaries highlighted internal tensions over candidate selection and policy direction, with low turnout and divisions on issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These trends underpin the 87% trader-implied probability that Likud will lose seats, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing coalition erosion and bloc realignments ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日88% 確率
$11,128 Vol.
$11,128 Vol.
2026/10/26
88% 確率
$11,128 Vol.
$11,128 Vol.
2026/10/26
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21-23 seats, down from its current 32, amid sustained public dissatisfaction with the government's security and coalition management since the 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent conflicts. Opposition blocs, including new entrants like Yashar, frequently edge toward or reach a narrow majority in surveys from outlets such as Maariv and Channel 13. Likud's August 17 primaries highlighted internal tensions over candidate selection and policy direction, with low turnout and divisions on issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These trends underpin the 87% trader-implied probability that Likud will lose seats, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing coalition erosion and bloc realignments ahead of the vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
音量
$11,128終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21-23 seats, down from its current 32, amid sustained public dissatisfaction with the government's security and coalition management since the 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent conflicts. Opposition blocs, including new entrants like Yashar, frequently edge toward or reach a narrow majority in surveys from outlets such as Maariv and Channel 13. Likud's August 17 primaries highlighted internal tensions over candidate selection and policy direction, with low turnout and divisions on issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These trends underpin the 87% trader-implied probability that Likud will lose seats, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing coalition erosion and bloc realignments ahead of the vote.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
音量
$11,128終了日
2026/10/27マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently project Likud at 21-23 seats, down from its current 32, amid sustained public dissatisfaction with the government's security and coalition management since the 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent conflicts. Opposition blocs, including new entrants like Yashar, frequently edge toward or reach a narrow majority in surveys from outlets such as Maariv and Channel 13. Likud's August 17 primaries highlighted internal tensions over candidate selection and policy direction, with low turnout and divisions on issues like ultra-Orthodox conscription. These trends underpin the 87% trader-implied probability that Likud will lose seats, reflecting the wisdom of crowds assessing coalition erosion and bloc realignments ahead of the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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