Netanyahu publicly confirmed in July 2026 that he intends to lead Likud into the October 27 Knesset election, directly reducing near-term expectations of withdrawal. Recent polling shows his coalition at 48 seats—well short of the 61-seat majority threshold—with Likud at 21 mandates behind Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party. Ongoing public fatigue over the Gaza and Iran conflicts, disputes over hostage and disarmament policies, and internal Likud strains have weighed on support, yet opposition parties continue to face their own coalition-formation barriers without Arab-aligned partners. Traders assess these dynamics against Netanyahu’s record of navigating legal cases and political crises, with the short timeline to election day limiting room for last-minute shifts that could prompt a dropout.