A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
2026年9月温度上昇（º C ）
1.30ºC未満 50%
1.30〜1.34℃ 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
50%
1.30〜1.34℃
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.30ºC未満 50%
1.30〜1.34℃ 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40～1.44ºC 50%
新規
新規
2026/10/09
1.30ºC未満
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30〜1.34℃
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40～1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45〜1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/10マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETA strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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