As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—with no hurricanes yet, amid a below-normal seasonal outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes overall. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around late-August formation windows because current steering patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions show limited immediate support for rapid intensification, while an emerging El Niño phase continues to enhance wind shear and suppress organized development. Model consensus points to a potential uptick near the historical peak, but variability in shear forecasts and moisture availability creates genuine uncertainty whether the first hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) crosses the threshold before September or remains delayed, with upcoming National Hurricane Center updates likely to shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年8月27日から8月31日 35%
2026年8月13日から8月16日 0
2026年8月17日から8月21日 0
2026年8月22日から8月26日 0
新規
新規
2026/08/17
2026年8月13日から8月16日
36%
2026年8月17日から8月21日
35%
2026年8月22日から8月26日
45%
2026年8月27日から8月31日
35%
2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない
44%
2026年8月27日から8月31日 35%
2026年8月13日から8月16日 0
2026年8月17日から8月21日 0
2026年8月22日から8月26日 0
新規
新規
2026/08/17
2026年8月13日から8月16日
$45 Vol.
36%
2026年8月17日から8月21日
$70 Vol.
35%
2026年8月22日から8月26日
$45 Vol.
45%
2026年8月27日から8月31日
$40 Vol.
35%
2026年8月に大西洋でハリケーンは発生しない
$50 Vol.
44%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—with no hurricanes yet, amid a below-normal seasonal outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes overall. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around late-August formation windows because current steering patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions show limited immediate support for rapid intensification, while an emerging El Niño phase continues to enhance wind shear and suppress organized development. Model consensus points to a potential uptick near the historical peak, but variability in shear forecasts and moisture availability creates genuine uncertainty whether the first hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) crosses the threshold before September or remains delayed, with upcoming National Hurricane Center updates likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
音量
$250終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—with no hurricanes yet, amid a below-normal seasonal outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes overall. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around late-August formation windows because current steering patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions show limited immediate support for rapid intensification, while an emerging El Niño phase continues to enhance wind shear and suppress organized development. Model consensus points to a potential uptick near the historical peak, but variability in shear forecasts and moisture availability creates genuine uncertainty whether the first hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) crosses the threshold before September or remains delayed, with upcoming National Hurricane Center updates likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
音量
$250終了日
2026/09/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of mid-August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only three named tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal—with no hurricanes yet, amid a below-normal seasonal outlook from NOAA and Colorado State University forecasting just 2–6 hurricanes overall. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around late-August formation windows because current steering patterns, sea surface temperatures, and atmospheric conditions show limited immediate support for rapid intensification, while an emerging El Niño phase continues to enhance wind shear and suppress organized development. Model consensus points to a potential uptick near the historical peak, but variability in shear forecasts and moisture availability creates genuine uncertainty whether the first hurricane (sustained winds ≥74 mph) crosses the threshold before September or remains delayed, with upcoming National Hurricane Center updates likely to shift implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問