Seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes occur globally roughly 12–15 times per month on average, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other active plate boundaries, though short-term prediction remains impossible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture. With only 19 days remaining until the end of August 2026, trader focus centers on regions with elevated background rates such as the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Indonesia, and California’s San Andreas system, where recent aftershock sequences or swarm activity could raise the chance of crossing the threshold. Model consensus from agencies like the USGS and international counterparts emphasizes that any new event would be identified through real-time seismic networks and moment tensor analysis, with no major forecast updates scheduled beyond routine weekly bulletins. Historical patterns indicate that roughly 40–50% of months see at least one M6+ quake in high-activity zones, underscoring the role of ongoing plate motion and stress accumulation rather than specific precursors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月末までに6.0以上の地震はどこで発生しますか？
8月末までに6.0以上の地震はどこで発生しますか？
新規
2026/09/03
日本
65%
アメリカ合衆国
22%
チリ
19%
メキシコ
16%
インドネシア
49%
フィリピン
59%
$1,640 Vol.
日本
$193 Vol.
65%
アメリカ合衆国
$473 Vol.
22%
チリ
$96 Vol.
19%
メキシコ
$315 Vol.
16%
インドネシア
$257 Vol.
49%
フィリピン
$306 Vol.
59%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes occur globally roughly 12–15 times per month on average, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other active plate boundaries, though short-term prediction remains impossible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture. With only 19 days remaining until the end of August 2026, trader focus centers on regions with elevated background rates such as the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Indonesia, and California’s San Andreas system, where recent aftershock sequences or swarm activity could raise the chance of crossing the threshold. Model consensus from agencies like the USGS and international counterparts emphasizes that any new event would be identified through real-time seismic networks and moment tensor analysis, with no major forecast updates scheduled beyond routine weekly bulletins. Historical patterns indicate that roughly 40–50% of months see at least one M6+ quake in high-activity zones, underscoring the role of ongoing plate motion and stress accumulation rather than specific precursors.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$1,640終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETThis market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Seismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes occur globally roughly 12–15 times per month on average, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other active plate boundaries, though short-term prediction remains impossible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture. With only 19 days remaining until the end of August 2026, trader focus centers on regions with elevated background rates such as the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Indonesia, and California’s San Andreas system, where recent aftershock sequences or swarm activity could raise the chance of crossing the threshold. Model consensus from agencies like the USGS and international counterparts emphasizes that any new event would be identified through real-time seismic networks and moment tensor analysis, with no major forecast updates scheduled beyond routine weekly bulletins. Historical patterns indicate that roughly 40–50% of months see at least one M6+ quake in high-activity zones, underscoring the role of ongoing plate motion and stress accumulation rather than specific precursors.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
音量
$1,640終了日
2026/09/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETSeismic monitoring by the USGS shows that magnitude 6.0+ earthquakes occur globally roughly 12–15 times per month on average, concentrated along the Pacific Ring of Fire and other active plate boundaries, though short-term prediction remains impossible due to the stochastic nature of fault rupture. With only 19 days remaining until the end of August 2026, trader focus centers on regions with elevated background rates such as the Aleutian Islands, Japan, Indonesia, and California’s San Andreas system, where recent aftershock sequences or swarm activity could raise the chance of crossing the threshold. Model consensus from agencies like the USGS and international counterparts emphasizes that any new event would be identified through real-time seismic networks and moment tensor analysis, with no major forecast updates scheduled beyond routine weekly bulletins. Historical patterns indicate that roughly 40–50% of months see at least one M6+ quake in high-activity zones, underscoring the role of ongoing plate motion and stress accumulation rather than specific precursors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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