Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年9月の米国の竜巻
2026年9月の米国の竜巻
50～74 54%
25〜49 50%
75～124 50%
125個以上 47%
新規
新規
2026/10/14
25未満
43%
25〜49
50%
50～74
54%
75～124
50%
125個以上
47%
50～74 54%
25〜49 50%
75～124 50%
125個以上 47%
新規
新規
2026/10/14
25未満
$0 Vol.
43%
25〜49
$0 Vol.
50%
50～74
$0 Vol.
54%
75～124
$0 Vol.
50%
125個以上
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/15マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
音量
$0終了日
2026/10/15マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 25-49, 50-74, and 75-124 tornado bins for September 2026 because long-term climatology centers near 66 confirmed events, with high year-to-year variability driven by tropical cyclone landfalls and frontal systems. A developing El Niño pattern, already evident in late-summer sea-surface temperatures, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity and associated tornado outbreaks while favoring drier conditions across the eastern U.S., tilting consensus toward the middle bins. Early September convective outlooks show only marginal severe risk, underscoring uncertainty over whether isolated tropical remnants or stronger mid-latitude impulses will elevate counts above average or keep totals subdued.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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