Recent polls place A Just Russia near the 5% party-list threshold required for proportional representation in the State Duma, with state-affiliated surveys such as VTsIOM showing 4–6% and FOM indicating 6–7% in early September fieldwork. The party’s support has fluctuated due to its pro-war repositioning and competition from New People and LDPR for similar voter segments, while single-member district strength offers a partial buffer. Traders see a narrow edge for clearing the barrier because Kremlin-aligned management of the tightly controlled September 18–20 vote often favors maintaining established parliamentary parties for stability. Late shifts in turnout, regional mobilization, or administrative adjustments to results remain the main variables that could push the outcome either direction before final Central Election Commission tallies.