**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月2日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
9月2日のウェリントンの最低気温は？
10°C 3%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
新規
新規
2026/09/02
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
3%
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
50%
16°C
49%
17°C or higher
48%
10°C 3%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
新規
新規
2026/09/02
7°C or below
$31 Vol.
-
8°C
$11 Vol.
-
9°C
$10 Vol.
-
10°C
$10 Vol.
3%
11°C
$10 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
-
13°C
$169 Vol.
-
14°C
$5 Vol.
-
15°C
$10 Vol.
50%
16°C
$10 Vol.
49%
17°C or higher
$18 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
音量
$285終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$285終了日
2026/09/02マーケット開始日
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Short-term forecast uncertainty for the overnight minimum temperature on September 2 drives the closely matched market probabilities around 8–11°C.** Official guidance and numerical models show overnight lows in Wellington likely ranging from roughly 9–13°C, with the tight spread reflecting differences in how models handle wind-driven mixing, cloud cover, and radiative cooling under northwesterly flow. Stronger winds can limit nocturnal temperature drops by enhancing turbulent mixing, while clearer or calmer conditions allow greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. Historical September averages for the city place typical minima near 9–10°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 9–11°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official briefings from MetService or equivalent agencies in the final 24 hours before resolution will likely narrow this uncertainty.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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