Latest short-term numerical weather prediction models indicate a high near 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the region, where August daily maxima average 12–13°C per NIWA climatology, with no strong high-pressure systems or warm advection currently expected to push temperatures higher. Recent seasonal outlooks from NIWA emphasize near-average temperatures as most likely, while day-specific guidance from sources such as Met Office and local forecasts show light winds and limited cloud cover that limit both warming and sharp cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable model runs against the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts, particularly regarding exact maximum timing and any late adjustments from observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月6日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
8月6日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
11°C 49%
10°C 36%
12°C 14%
9°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/06
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
6%
10°C
36%
11°C
49%
12°C
14%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C or higher
1%
11°C 49%
10°C 36%
12°C 14%
9°C 6%
新規
新規
2026/08/06
5°C or below
$366 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$166 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$109 Vol.
1%
8°C
$26 Vol.
2%
9°C
$184 Vol.
6%
10°C
$180 Vol.
36%
11°C
$224 Vol.
49%
12°C
$590 Vol.
14%
13°C
$10 Vol.
2%
14°C
$23 Vol.
1%
15°C or higher
$111 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-term numerical weather prediction models indicate a high near 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the region, where August daily maxima average 12–13°C per NIWA climatology, with no strong high-pressure systems or warm advection currently expected to push temperatures higher. Recent seasonal outlooks from NIWA emphasize near-average temperatures as most likely, while day-specific guidance from sources such as Met Office and local forecasts show light winds and limited cloud cover that limit both warming and sharp cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable model runs against the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts, particularly regarding exact maximum timing and any late adjustments from observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$1,989終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest short-term numerical weather prediction models indicate a high near 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the region, where August daily maxima average 12–13°C per NIWA climatology, with no strong high-pressure systems or warm advection currently expected to push temperatures higher. Recent seasonal outlooks from NIWA emphasize near-average temperatures as most likely, while day-specific guidance from sources such as Met Office and local forecasts show light winds and limited cloud cover that limit both warming and sharp cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable model runs against the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts, particularly regarding exact maximum timing and any late adjustments from observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,989終了日
2026/08/06マーケット開始日
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETLatest short-term numerical weather prediction models indicate a high near 10–11°C for Wellington on August 6, aligning with the market's leading 48.5% and 35.5% implied probabilities for those outcomes. This reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the region, where August daily maxima average 12–13°C per NIWA climatology, with no strong high-pressure systems or warm advection currently expected to push temperatures higher. Recent seasonal outlooks from NIWA emphasize near-average temperatures as most likely, while day-specific guidance from sources such as Met Office and local forecasts show light winds and limited cloud cover that limit both warming and sharp cooling. Traders appear to weigh these stable model runs against the inherent uncertainty in 48-hour temperature forecasts, particularly regarding exact maximum timing and any late adjustments from observational data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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