Current forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and regional models point to a peak of 38°C in Madrid on August 7, supporting the slim market edge for that outcome over 39°C. High-pressure dominance, clear skies, and dry continental air typical of midsummer favor strong daytime heating, yet minor shifts in wind or cloud cover could tip the daily maximum either way. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with historical August extremes rarely exceeding 40°C absent heatwave amplification. Traders weigh the narrow gap between the two leading bins against resolution on official AEMET readings, as fresh model runs and any late adjustments in steering flow remain the key variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月7日のマドリードの最高気温は?
39°C 48%
38°C 46%
37°C 6%
40°C 3%
$13,877 Vol.
$13,877 Vol.
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
6%
38°C
46%
39°C
48%
40°C
3%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 48%
38°C 46%
37°C 6%
40°C 3%
$13,877 Vol.
$13,877 Vol.
35°C or below
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
6%
38°C
46%
39°C
48%
40°C
3%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 5, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and regional models point to a peak of 38°C in Madrid on August 7, supporting the slim market edge for that outcome over 39°C. High-pressure dominance, clear skies, and dry continental air typical of midsummer favor strong daytime heating, yet minor shifts in wind or cloud cover could tip the daily maximum either way. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with historical August extremes rarely exceeding 40°C absent heatwave amplification. Traders weigh the narrow gap between the two leading bins against resolution on official AEMET readings, as fresh model runs and any late adjustments in steering flow remain the key variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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