Proposition 5, a legislative constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate the successor question from state recall elections, allowing vacancies to be filled later through special elections or appointments under existing rules rather than simultaneous replacement votes. This structural shift, backed by Secretary of State Shirley Weber and groups like the League of Women Voters, aims to reduce campaign costs and political maneuvering in recalls but faces opposition from organizations concerned about limiting voter choice in filling offices. With the election two months away and limited recent polling shifts or major campaign developments reported, traders assign a 58% probability to rejection, reflecting caution toward altering California's longstanding recall framework.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
はい
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
マーケット開始日: Jul 1, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Proposition 5, a legislative constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate the successor question from state recall elections, allowing vacancies to be filled later through special elections or appointments under existing rules rather than simultaneous replacement votes. This structural shift, backed by Secretary of State Shirley Weber and groups like the League of Women Voters, aims to reduce campaign costs and political maneuvering in recalls but faces opposition from organizations concerned about limiting voter choice in filling offices. With the election two months away and limited recent polling shifts or major campaign developments reported, traders assign a 58% probability to rejection, reflecting caution toward altering California's longstanding recall framework.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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