Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Steve Manos in the November general election for the 39th congressional district. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic due to its partisan composition in the Inland Empire, strong Democratic registration advantages, and consistent past performance by the incumbent. Redistricting under recent state measures further entrenched the district's lean toward Democrats, limiting Republican paths to victory. With the general election still months away, trader consensus at over 93% for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or candidate-specific developments could theoretically narrow the margin before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$48,103 Vol.
$48,103 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
3%
$48,103 Vol.
$48,103 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$31,913 Vol.
94%
共和党
$16,189 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Steve Manos in the November general election for the 39th congressional district. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic due to its partisan composition in the Inland Empire, strong Democratic registration advantages, and consistent past performance by the incumbent. Redistricting under recent state measures further entrenched the district's lean toward Democrats, limiting Republican paths to victory. With the general election still months away, trader consensus at over 93% for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or candidate-specific developments could theoretically narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$48,103終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Steve Manos in the November general election for the 39th congressional district. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic due to its partisan composition in the Inland Empire, strong Democratic registration advantages, and consistent past performance by the incumbent. Redistricting under recent state measures further entrenched the district's lean toward Democrats, limiting Republican paths to victory. With the general election still months away, trader consensus at over 93% for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or candidate-specific developments could theoretically narrow the margin before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$48,103終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano advanced from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Steve Manos in the November general election for the 39th congressional district. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic due to its partisan composition in the Inland Empire, strong Democratic registration advantages, and consistent past performance by the incumbent. Redistricting under recent state measures further entrenched the district's lean toward Democrats, limiting Republican paths to victory. With the general election still months away, trader consensus at over 93% for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors, though late national shifts, turnout surprises, or candidate-specific developments could theoretically narrow the margin before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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