Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,301 Vol.
$15,301 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$15,301 Vol.
$15,301 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,853 Vol.
94%
共和党
$9,448 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$15,301終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,301終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Pete Aguilar's strong position in California's 33rd congressional district reflects the area's consistent partisan lean, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+7 and prior election margins favoring Democrats by double digits. Recent primary results showed Aguilar securing over 53% of the vote, advancing easily against Republican challengers under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with historical patterns for safe seats, where incumbency, fundraising edges, and voter demographics limit Republican viability. A major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unprecedented national partisan shift could narrow the gap, though structural barriers make such reversals uncommon ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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