California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
2%
$35,737 Vol.
$35,737 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,981 Vol.
96%
共和党
$21,756 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$35,737終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,737終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, covering parts of the East Bay including Alameda County communities, has long leaned strongly Democratic in both presidential and congressional voting. The August 18, 2026 special general election follows a June primary in which the top two finishers—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—were both Democrats, creating a same-party matchup that locks in the outcome for the Democratic nominee under California's top-two system. Trader consensus at 95.5% for the Democratic Party reflects this structural certainty, consistent with the district's partisan lean and historical results. Limited upside for Republicans stems from their candidate finishing third in the primary. The only plausible shifts would require unforeseen events such as candidate withdrawal, disqualification, or a successful legal challenge altering the ballot before voting concludes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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