California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,671 Vol.
$13,671 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
3%
$13,671 Vol.
$13,671 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$5,915 Vol.
96%
共和党
$7,756 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$13,671終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,671終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問