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icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
政治·下院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
政治·下院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.4%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$17,176 Vol.

86%

Melissa Hernandez

$3,032 Vol.

12%

Wendy Huang

$1,336 Vol.

<1%

Carin Elam

$1,586 Vol.

<1%

Matt Ortega

$1,163 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,839 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$1,046 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 special primary, where she captured roughly 43% of the vote—more than double the share of runner-up Melissa Hernandez—and advanced alongside her to today’s August 18 runoff. The solidly Democratic Bay Area district, vacant after Eric Swalwell’s April resignation, features only these two major-party candidates on the special general ballot, with all other listed contenders polling at negligible levels. Democratic Party endorsement of Wahab, her prior statewide Senate experience, and consistent polling leads over Hernandez in both the special and full-term primaries have shaped trader consensus. Hernandez’s stronger fundraising has not narrowed the gap enough to shift odds materially ahead of election-day results.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
音量
$27,177
終了日
2026/08/18
マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 special primary, where she captured roughly 43% of the vote—more than double the share of runner-up Melissa Hernandez—and advanced alongside her to today’s August 18 runoff. The solidly Democratic Bay Area district, vacant after Eric Swalwell’s April resignation, features only these two major-party candidates on the special general ballot, with all other listed contenders polling at negligible levels. Democratic Party endorsement of Wahab, her prior statewide Senate experience, and consistent polling leads over Hernandez in both the special and full-term primaries have shaped trader consensus. Hernandez’s stronger fundraising has not narrowed the gap enough to shift odds materially ahead of election-day results.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
音量
$27,177
終了日
2026/08/18
マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「CA-14 Special Election Winner?」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Aisha Wahab」で86%、次いで「Melissa Hernandez」が12%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、86¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に86%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「CA-14 Special Election Winner?」は$27.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「CA-14 Special Election Winner?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「CA-14 Special Election Winner?」の現在のフロントランナーは「Aisha Wahab」で86%であり、市場がこの結果に86%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Melissa Hernandez」で12%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「CA-14 Special Election Winner?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。