Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss seeks re-election in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, a reliably Democratic seat encompassing suburban areas around Newton and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The district's strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins in general elections underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent implied probability. A competitive September 1 Democratic primary against challenger Jason Poulos remains the main near-term variable, though the general-election Republican nominee faces structural barriers typical of the state's nine House seats. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected primary upset, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically narrow the gap, but historical patterns and current candidate fields limit realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$46,864 Vol.
$46,864 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
97%
共和党
2%
$46,864 Vol.
$46,864 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$23,264 Vol.
97%
共和党
$23,600 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss seeks re-election in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, a reliably Democratic seat encompassing suburban areas around Newton and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The district's strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins in general elections underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent implied probability. A competitive September 1 Democratic primary against challenger Jason Poulos remains the main near-term variable, though the general-election Republican nominee faces structural barriers typical of the state's nine House seats. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected primary upset, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically narrow the gap, but historical patterns and current candidate fields limit realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$46,864終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss seeks re-election in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, a reliably Democratic seat encompassing suburban areas around Newton and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The district's strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins in general elections underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent implied probability. A competitive September 1 Democratic primary against challenger Jason Poulos remains the main near-term variable, though the general-election Republican nominee faces structural barriers typical of the state's nine House seats. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected primary upset, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically narrow the gap, but historical patterns and current candidate fields limit realistic paths to a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$46,864終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jake Auchincloss seeks re-election in Massachusetts's 4th congressional district, a reliably Democratic seat encompassing suburban areas around Newton and parts of southeastern Massachusetts. The district's strong partisan lean and history of large Democratic margins in general elections underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at over 96 percent implied probability. A competitive September 1 Democratic primary against challenger Jason Poulos remains the main near-term variable, though the general-election Republican nominee faces structural barriers typical of the state's nine House seats. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected primary upset, or unusually strong national Republican performance could theoretically narrow the gap, but historical patterns and current candidate fields limit realistic paths to a Republican victory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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