**Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader following the latter’s death in early 2026 strikes, with formal announcement by the Assembly of Experts in March.** He has since issued written statements on policy, military responses, and negotiations, including threats against the US amid ongoing hostilities, suspended memoranda, and regional tensions. Reports indicate he has not appeared publicly since taking the role, with officials citing wounds, raising questions about his operational role and physical location. As supreme leader, he holds constitutional authority over key institutions including the IRGC, while facing structural barriers to visible leadership during active conflict. Trader sentiment on any departure timeline centers on his institutional position, security considerations, health-related factors, and the absence of confirmed international travel or exile signals through mid-2026. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could influence assessments of his continued presence in Iran.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNUOVO
$86,565 Vol.
24 lug 2026
24 luglio
1%
31 luglio
1%
31 agosto
6%
$86,565 Vol.
24 luglio
$2,555 Vol.
1%
31 luglio
$32,493 Vol.
1%
31 agosto
$51,517 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader following the latter’s death in early 2026 strikes, with formal announcement by the Assembly of Experts in March.** He has since issued written statements on policy, military responses, and negotiations, including threats against the US amid ongoing hostilities, suspended memoranda, and regional tensions. Reports indicate he has not appeared publicly since taking the role, with officials citing wounds, raising questions about his operational role and physical location. As supreme leader, he holds constitutional authority over key institutions including the IRGC, while facing structural barriers to visible leadership during active conflict. Trader sentiment on any departure timeline centers on his institutional position, security considerations, health-related factors, and the absence of confirmed international travel or exile signals through mid-2026. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could influence assessments of his continued presence in Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
Volume
$86,565Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader following the latter’s death in early 2026 strikes, with formal announcement by the Assembly of Experts in March.** He has since issued written statements on policy, military responses, and negotiations, including threats against the US amid ongoing hostilities, suspended memoranda, and regional tensions. Reports indicate he has not appeared publicly since taking the role, with officials citing wounds, raising questions about his operational role and physical location. As supreme leader, he holds constitutional authority over key institutions including the IRGC, while facing structural barriers to visible leadership during active conflict. Trader sentiment on any departure timeline centers on his institutional position, security considerations, health-related factors, and the absence of confirmed international travel or exile signals through mid-2026. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could influence assessments of his continued presence in Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$86,565Data di fine
31 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as Supreme Leader following the latter’s death in early 2026 strikes, with formal announcement by the Assembly of Experts in March.** He has since issued written statements on policy, military responses, and negotiations, including threats against the US amid ongoing hostilities, suspended memoranda, and regional tensions. Reports indicate he has not appeared publicly since taking the role, with officials citing wounds, raising questions about his operational role and physical location. As supreme leader, he holds constitutional authority over key institutions including the IRGC, while facing structural barriers to visible leadership during active conflict. Trader sentiment on any departure timeline centers on his institutional position, security considerations, health-related factors, and the absence of confirmed international travel or exile signals through mid-2026. Upcoming diplomatic or military developments could influence assessments of his continued presence in Iran.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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