**Cloud cover and modest easterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 31 near 29–31 °C.** Official JMA guidance and most global models (GFS, ECMWF) forecast mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers or drizzle, which reduces incoming solar radiation and limits surface heating. Recent cooler conditions—August 30 peaked only around 27–28 °C after widespread rain—have also left a cooler boundary layer that models struggle to warm rapidly. Light easterly winds advect slightly cooler marine air while high humidity (70–80 %) favors a shallow mixed layer. These elements keep the majority of ensemble members clustered between 29–31 °C, explaining why the market currently prices 29 °C and 30 °C highest (roughly 66 % combined implied probability) while assigning lower odds to 31 °C or above. Updated afternoon model runs or clearer skies could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 29–31 °C window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 31 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Tokyo il 31 agosto?
30°C 34%
29°C 33%
31°C 15%
28°C 14%
NUOVO
$23,664 Vol.
NUOVO
$23,664 Vol.
31 ago 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
14%
29°C
33%
30°C
34%
31°C
15%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 34%
29°C 33%
31°C 15%
28°C 14%
NUOVO
$23,664 Vol.
NUOVO
$23,664 Vol.
31 ago 2026
25°C or below
$1,228 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,210 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$672 Vol.
2%
28°C
$1,937 Vol.
14%
29°C
$3,023 Vol.
33%
30°C
$7,187 Vol.
34%
31°C
$3,643 Vol.
15%
32°C
$2,078 Vol.
4%
33°C
$1,317 Vol.
1%
34°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$1,173 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover and modest easterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 31 near 29–31 °C.** Official JMA guidance and most global models (GFS, ECMWF) forecast mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers or drizzle, which reduces incoming solar radiation and limits surface heating. Recent cooler conditions—August 30 peaked only around 27–28 °C after widespread rain—have also left a cooler boundary layer that models struggle to warm rapidly. Light easterly winds advect slightly cooler marine air while high humidity (70–80 %) favors a shallow mixed layer.
These elements keep the majority of ensemble members clustered between 29–31 °C, explaining why the market currently prices 29 °C and 30 °C highest (roughly 66 % combined implied probability) while assigning lower odds to 31 °C or above. Updated afternoon model runs or clearer skies could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 29–31 °C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,664Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Cloud cover and modest easterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 31 near 29–31 °C.** Official JMA guidance and most global models (GFS, ECMWF) forecast mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers or drizzle, which reduces incoming solar radiation and limits surface heating. Recent cooler conditions—August 30 peaked only around 27–28 °C after widespread rain—have also left a cooler boundary layer that models struggle to warm rapidly. Light easterly winds advect slightly cooler marine air while high humidity (70–80 %) favors a shallow mixed layer.
These elements keep the majority of ensemble members clustered between 29–31 °C, explaining why the market currently prices 29 °C and 30 °C highest (roughly 66 % combined implied probability) while assigning lower odds to 31 °C or above. Updated afternoon model runs or clearer skies could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 29–31 °C window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,664Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Cloud cover and modest easterly flow are the dominant factors capping Tokyo’s peak temperature on August 31 near 29–31 °C.** Official JMA guidance and most global models (GFS, ECMWF) forecast mostly cloudy skies with scattered light showers or drizzle, which reduces incoming solar radiation and limits surface heating. Recent cooler conditions—August 30 peaked only around 27–28 °C after widespread rain—have also left a cooler boundary layer that models struggle to warm rapidly. Light easterly winds advect slightly cooler marine air while high humidity (70–80 %) favors a shallow mixed layer. These elements keep the majority of ensemble members clustered between 29–31 °C, explaining why the market currently prices 29 °C and 30 °C highest (roughly 66 % combined implied probability) while assigning lower odds to 31 °C or above. Updated afternoon model runs or clearer skies could still shift the exact maximum within the narrow 29–31 °C window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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