Flavio Bolsonaro’s selection of Alfredo Gaspar as running mate on August 5, 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus around the Liberal Party federal deputy from Alagoas. The announcement followed weeks of unsuccessful outreach to other parties and potential female candidates, resulting in an all-PL ticket for the October presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Gaspar’s profile as a former prosecutor and recent party member aligned with internal preferences after higher-profile options declined. While the formal nomination substantially reduces uncertainty, late shifts before ballot finalization, party convention reversals, or unforeseen eligibility issues remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome reflected in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAlfredo Gaspar 97.9%
Michelle Bolsonaro <1%
Júlia Zanatta <1%
Simone Marquetto <1%
$23,746 Vol.
$23,746 Vol.
Alfredo Gaspar
98%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Júlia Zanatta
1%
Simone Marquetto
<1%
Priscila Costa
<1%
Daniella Marques
<1%
Clarissa Tércio
<1%
Marcos Pontes
<1%
Renata Abreu
<1%
Gilson Machado
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Damares Alves
<1%
Bia Kicis
<1%
Rosana Valle
<1%
Rogério Marinho
<1%
Alfredo Gaspar 97.9%
Michelle Bolsonaro <1%
Júlia Zanatta <1%
Simone Marquetto <1%
$23,746 Vol.
$23,746 Vol.
Alfredo Gaspar
98%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Júlia Zanatta
1%
Simone Marquetto
<1%
Priscila Costa
<1%
Daniella Marques
<1%
Clarissa Tércio
<1%
Marcos Pontes
<1%
Renata Abreu
<1%
Gilson Machado
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Damares Alves
<1%
Bia Kicis
<1%
Rosana Valle
<1%
Rogério Marinho
<1%
An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro’s selection of Alfredo Gaspar as running mate on August 5, 2026, has driven near-certain trader consensus around the Liberal Party federal deputy from Alagoas. The announcement followed weeks of unsuccessful outreach to other parties and potential female candidates, resulting in an all-PL ticket for the October presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Gaspar’s profile as a former prosecutor and recent party member aligned with internal preferences after higher-profile options declined. While the formal nomination substantially reduces uncertainty, late shifts before ballot finalization, party convention reversals, or unforeseen eligibility issues remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome reflected in current pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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