Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in the Ceará gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 66% implied probability, due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple recent surveys, including AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Ipsos from June through early August 2026, show Ciro ahead by 4–12 points in first-round intentions, bolstered by his prior term as governor and broad name recognition. The August 9 Band Ceará debate between the two front-runners highlighted contrasts on public security and state administration, reinforcing a runoff-like dynamic. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão trail far behind with negligible support. Traders appear to price in Ciro's edge while noting the race remains subject to shifts from campaign events ahead of the October 4 first round.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 66%
Elmano de Freitas 34%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,795 Vol.
$128,795 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Ciro Gomes
66%
Elmano de Freitas
34%
Eduardo Girão
1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 66%
Elmano de Freitas 34%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,795 Vol.
$128,795 Vol.
4 ott 2026
Ciro Gomes
$74,854 Vol.
66%
Elmano de Freitas
$22,808 Vol.
34%
Eduardo Girão
$8,761 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$6,387 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$7,474 Vol.
<1%
Capitão Wagner
$8,512 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in the Ceará gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 66% implied probability, due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple recent surveys, including AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Ipsos from June through early August 2026, show Ciro ahead by 4–12 points in first-round intentions, bolstered by his prior term as governor and broad name recognition. The August 9 Band Ceará debate between the two front-runners highlighted contrasts on public security and state administration, reinforcing a runoff-like dynamic. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão trail far behind with negligible support. Traders appear to price in Ciro's edge while noting the race remains subject to shifts from campaign events ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$128,795Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in the Ceará gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 66% implied probability, due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple recent surveys, including AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Ipsos from June through early August 2026, show Ciro ahead by 4–12 points in first-round intentions, bolstered by his prior term as governor and broad name recognition. The August 9 Band Ceará debate between the two front-runners highlighted contrasts on public security and state administration, reinforcing a runoff-like dynamic. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão trail far behind with negligible support. Traders appear to price in Ciro's edge while noting the race remains subject to shifts from campaign events ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$128,795Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes maintains a clear lead in the Ceará gubernatorial race, reflected in the market's 66% implied probability, due to consistent polling advantages over incumbent Elmano de Freitas. Multiple recent surveys, including AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Ipsos from June through early August 2026, show Ciro ahead by 4–12 points in first-round intentions, bolstered by his prior term as governor and broad name recognition. The August 9 Band Ceará debate between the two front-runners highlighted contrasts on public security and state administration, reinforcing a runoff-like dynamic. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão trail far behind with negligible support. Traders appear to price in Ciro's edge while noting the race remains subject to shifts from campaign events ahead of the October 4 first round.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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